The following was recently published by professional handicapper
Teddy Covers on the wagering website
Sportsmemo, which is a fantastic site, by the way. First off is the bull case for Alabama, followed by the bull case for Florida...
Five reasons to bet Alabama +9.5 vs. Florida
I expected Florida to be favored against Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. I even expected the Gators to be laying in the range of a touchdown. But 9.5/10? Wow – even I’m surprised at this one. Here are my Top Five reasons to support Alabama in this price range. I’ll check back later in the week with some thoughts on the other side of this matchup…
Five Reasons to support Alabama +9.5:
1) Undefeated Teams Hang Tough. The Crimson Tide are undefeated following a rigorous SEC campaign, yet the betting marketplace doesn’t respect them, catching more than a touchdown against the one loss Gators. Major conference undefeated teams at this stage of the season should NOT be underdogs in this price range against anybody.
2) Nick Saban. You are not going to find a head coach in all of college football with a stronger track record as an underdog, dating all the way back to his tenure at Michigan State in the late 90’s. The Crimson Tide were underdogs twice this year, covering the spread by a combined 45.5 points in those two double digit victories.
3) Percy Harvin. Florida’s best offensive weapon is banged up, less than 100% with a severe ankle sprain. While he is expected to play, if the Gators leading receiver and second leading rusher isn’t fully healthy, we can expect Florida’s offense to suffer significantly.
4) Value. The Gators have been the single best pointspread team in the country, extremely difficult for a one loss, highly public team to accomplish. They’ve covered the spread in each and every game since the end of September, thanks to an offense that has averaged more than 50 points per game since their loss to Ole Miss. Meanwhile, Alabama has been winning games and covering pointspreads the old fashioned way – defense, special teams and running the football. They lack the glamour of the Gators, or a high profile former Heisman winner like Tim Tebow.
5) Strength in the Trenches. Alabama’s offensive line has three first day NFL draft choices, and quite possibly a fourth. Defensive tackle Terrance Cody is another sure-fire first rounders. Offensive and defensive linemen aren’t sexy, but they make all the difference in a game of this magnitude, where the importance of winning the battle at the line of scrimmage will be paramount.
Earlier in the week, I listed five reasons why I thought Alabama was worth a wager as ten point underdogs against Florida. Yet the Crimson Tide did not make my list of recommendations for my clients this week, and I have not personally placed a wager on Nick Saban’s squad, nor do I intend to do so. Why not? Read on, my friends – there are five equally good reasons why Florida is worth a wager as a ten point favorite against Alabama!
1) Speed Kills. Florida’s team speed is second to none in the country, on both sides of the football. When we start to think about which team is more likely to make the big, game changing, pointspread covering plays, the Gators are the clear choice, in large part due to that overwhelming team speed. A cheap defensive or special teams touchdown or two would certainly go a long way towards covering this number ….
2) Best Player. Tim Tebow is the reigning Heisman Trophy winner. He’s a dual threat QB of the caliber that ‘Bama simply hasn’t seen this year. There’s something to be said for a 25:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio against SEC competition, not to mention his twelve TD’s on the ground. Tebow is, quite literally, unstoppable.
3) Defense. Alabama has a great defense and a solid running game. They’ve made a living building and then sitting on early leads. Florida’s defense might be even better. The Gators haven’t allowed more than 21 points to any opponent during their current seven game SU and ATS winning streak, and their defense is ranked #7 in the country. That’s why they’ve won the yardage battle by 120+ in eight of their last nine ballgames.
4) Fraudulent Defense. Alabama has some great defensive numbers of their own, but most of those numbers came against struggling offensive opposition. Only two of the Crimson Tide’s opponents ranked in the Top 50 in offensive yardage this year, and the SEC West featured a litany of underperforming attacks from Auburn, LSU, Mississippi St and Arkansas.
5) Track Record Against Elite Foes. Urban Meyer has led the Gators to wins and covers in six of the seven games that Florida has played against bowl bound foes. The closest margin in any of those victories came in Florida’s 23 point win over Miami; the average margin was just shy of 40 points. Meanwhile, ‘Bama’s signature wins against Georgia and Clemson don’t look quite as impressive in retrospect. They needed overtime to get past LSU and if they didn’t win the turnover margin against Ole Miss, they would not have escaped that game with the four point win.